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Nintendo has adjusted its hardware and software sales forecasts, signaling a transition period as the Switch enters its twilight years. The company now expects to sell 11 million Switch units in fiscal year 2025, down from the previously projected 12.5 million, while software expectations have also been revised from 160 million to 150 million units. These numbers reflect the natural slowdown of a console that has been dominating for nearly eight years. However, this decline isn’t just about aging hardware—it’s also a clear indication that fans are waiting for the Switch 2.
Why Is Nintendo Revising Its Forecast?
Several factors contribute to Nintendo’s adjusted expectations:
- Switch Sales Are Declining: Despite reaching an eye-watering 150 million+ lifetime sales, Switch sales dropped 30.6% year-over-year, with 9.54 million units sold between April and December 2024. The biggest decline came from the OLED Model, which fell 37.9%.
- Software Sales Are Slowing Too: Nintendo’s first-party games still dominate, making up 73.4% of total software sales, but total game sales have dropped 24.4% year-over-year.
- Fans Are Holding Off for Switch 2: With Nintendo officially confirming the Switch 2 for a 2025 release, it’s clear that many players are waiting for the next-gen console instead of buying new Switch hardware.
What This Means for the Switch 2 Launch
The Switch 2 is coming, and this slowdown suggests that Nintendo is entering a transition period. Here’s what we can expect:
- A Gradual Shift: Unlike past console transitions, Nintendo is likely to support the original Switch alongside the Switch 2 for at least a few years, given its massive install base.
- Backwards Compatibility Could Be Key: If the Switch 2 is fully backwards compatible, Nintendo’s evergreen games (Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Animal Crossing) could continue to drive sales.
- The April 2 Nintendo Direct Will Be Critical: With the Switch 2 reveal happening soon, all eyes will be on Nintendo to see how they position their next-gen system.
The Bigger Picture: Nintendo’s Digital Growth
Despite declining hardware sales, Nintendo’s digital sales are growing, now making up 51% of total software revenue. This suggests a long-term shift towards downloadable games, possibly indicating Nintendo may push for a stronger digital-first approach with the Switch 2.
Final Thoughts
The Nintendo Switch era is winding down, but not before cementing its legacy as one of the most successful consoles of all time. As sales slow, the focus shifts to the Switch 2 and how Nintendo will manage its transition. The next few months, especially with the April 2 Nintendo Direct, will be critical in shaping Nintendo’s future.